January 28, 2016

Establishment Candidate Katie McGinty Continues To Underperform

Two new polls show that, despite heavy support from the in Washington, D.C. and Philadelphia Democratic establishment, Katie McGinty is still struggling with low name ID and languishing in second place in the Pennsylvania Democratic senate primary. First, Harper Polling released a poll showing McGinty garnering only 28% in the Democratic Primary:

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That poll also showed that despite all the establishment endorsements that McGinty has been rolling out, 33% of Pennsylvanians still are not sure what to think of her:

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The second poll, done by Franklin & Marshall, was even worse for McGinty. It again showed McGinty in second in the primary with … 13%, completely unchanged since August:

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Another negative in the poll for McGinty is that voters are fed up with the budget crisis. As The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review noted:

“The Franklin & Marshall poll says that two-thirds of Pennsylvanians think the state is on the wrong track, the highest share since January 2010. Thirty-eight percent of voters deem state government and politicians as the No. 1 problem facing Pennsylvania.

[Franklin & Marshall political scientist Terry] Madonna said such discontent sat at 17 percent in June, before the budget impasse. Back then, people were more concerned about education and unemployment, with each issue being identified by 18 percent of voters as the state’s No. 1 problem.

The longer the budget crisis goes unresolved, the bigger a problem it could become for McGinty. McGinty was the chief of staff for Governor Wolf until she abandoned the budget crisis in August in order to run for the U.S. Senate. Even while she was the chief of staff though, McGinty was a negative for the budget negotiations, even having been kept out of some negotiations.

These polls are bad news for McGinty – who has consistently underperformed as a candidate – and spell trouble for the establishment backers who worked so hard to recruit her.