Lack of Enthusiasm Spells Trouble for Joe Biden’s Chances

One month into Joe Biden’s campaign, one question continues to linger over his bid. Does he have the ability to maintain the frontrunner status that was thrust upon him?

There have been plenty of presidential candidates who got off to fast starts only to flame out once important primary contests drew closer. In Biden’s case, the evidence is mixed. Politico reported over the Memorial Day weekend that Biden is struggling to attract energetic crowds to his events, signaling a lack of enthusiasm amongst engaged Democrats for his candidacy.

Most concerning for Biden is that the lack of enthusiasm is coming in key early primary contest states where rivals are attracting big crowds and enthusiastic supporters.

Politico: “Attendance at the former vice president’s launch rally paled next to some of his rivals. In his first Iowa visit, he didn’t match the crowds that greeted Elizabeth Warren or even the less well-known Pete Buttigieg in their initial visits. So far, he’s kept his events to smaller venues where there’s little danger of empty seats.”

The lack of enthusiasm is also prevalent to activists on the ground who are engaging with voters every single day.

Politico: “I started to think the polls were wrong about Biden because it’s not what we’re seeing on the ground,” said Aimee Allison, founder and president of She the People, a national network devoted to promoting women of color.

“Inspiration is the X-factor and we’re waiting for the inspiration from Biden,” she said. “When the inspiration isn’t there, the turnout from the core of the Democratic base — women of color — isn’t there. And then we lose.”

Politico also noted the far larger crowd sizes at Kamala Harris’s kick-off rally in Oakland and Bernie Sanders’s kick-off rally in Brooklyn. Harris had 20,000 show up in Oakland to help launch her campaign, while Bernie had 13,000 in Brooklyn. By comparison, Biden had only 6,000 people, as estimated by his campaign, for a rally to open his campaign headquarters in Philadelphia. To make matters worse, some observers opined that Biden drew less than the already low estimate his campaign touted.

It’s a subject that hasn’t evaded the attention of President Donald Trump, who has consistently attracted large and enthusiastic crowds of supporters since his own primary in 2016.

Another theme of Biden’s campaign that will become increasingly obvious is the lack of events the campaign has held in comparison to the frenetic pace of the other candidates. He took off the long Memorial Day Weekend and has only visited Iowa once since launching his campaign.

The lack of events in Iowa is particularly alarming for Biden given that his “campaign would crater in the face of a weak Iowa performance.” He has already fallen for the unfortunate burden of high expectations where the “strength of his candidacy will be measured not by whether he can win Iowa, but by how much.” It’s always dangerous for the frontrunner to leave the strength of their campaign beholden to arguing over a subject measure of how much they were supposed to win by, rather than an objective account of who won and who lost.

Politico: “I think the challenge ahead for him is that being a front-runner is a kiss of death,” said Jerry Crawford, a longtime Iowa Democratic power broker, noting that Biden’s commanding lead means he’ll be a target of attacks for the next eight months.”